This study examines the extent and nature of foreign exchange exposure in 405 listed corporations operating in the ASEAN-4 nations, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. The study period of 23 years, from 1995 to 2017, covers the two major crisis periods, the Asian financial crisis (AFC) of 1997 and the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. Our study improves on earlier work by using two alternative assessment methods, i.e., stock returns (SR) and cash flow (CF) methods. We report several interesting and noteworthy results. First, we find that the stock returns approach results in a higher incidence of exchange rate exposure relative to the cash flow method. Specifically, about 65% and 28% of the total ASEAN-4 firms had significant exposure to all currencies under the stock returns and cash flow methods, respectively. Second, we find the sample firms to have predominant exposure to the US dollar, signifying the important role played by the United States (US) as the major trading partner of the ASEAN-4. Third, when evaluating time-varying exposure, we find that the incidence of the exchange rate exposure is event-specific. Most of our sample firms were highly exposed to exchange rates during the mid-points of the AFC and the GFC.

The option pricing model introduced by Black-Scholes in 1974 gained wide acceptance for its simplicity but was inefficient in pricing options as it relied on implied volatility. Despite the evolution of various versions of option pricing models since their seminal work, little progress had been documented on the use of implied volatility, leaving Black-Scholes to be a mathematical identity to calculate the instantaneous implied volatility as it fails to be an efficient pricing equation. Although interpreted as market expectation of future volatility of stocks, implied volatility is literally a black box that captures market information that is not specifically known yet also internally inconsistent (e.g., having a different implied volatility surface for put and call options). The four main objectives of this thesis are: first, to empirically studying the performance of the Oscillator model developed by Baaquie (2019) and examining its efficiency in pricing options as compared to Black-Scholes model. The Oscillator model has only two sets of parameters in addition to the classical form of Black-Scholes; one to model for the underlying stochastic evolution of the stock price, and the second are of market time. Market time is a behavioural parameter introduced by Baaquie and Bouchaud (2004) which scales the time to maturity to capture the market sentiment of the underlying instrument. This thesis also introduced an alternative version of Black-Scholes by adjusting it for market time. Second, the thesis tested the put-call parity violation. Third, the thesis tested three main option hedging Greeks; Delta, Gamma, and Theta, which are partial differentiations of the option pricing equation. Fourth, the thesis discussed the calibrated output and parameters' behaviour to provide insights into the implied volatility information content and gain new understanding of the parametric gap of Black-Scholes particularly in the light of the Oscillator and Black-Scholes models adjusted for market time.

The present study attempts to investigate whether shadow economy and the tourism sector are related. In the European countries, Schneider reported that 20 to 25 per cent of the shadow economy is represented in the tourism-related industries – wholesale and retail, automotive and motorcycle sales and maintenance; transportation, storage and communications; and hotels and restaurants. For the tourism sector, the services given by operators (unregistered and/or underreporting) operate in the shadow economy will ultimately wiped off the map of high quality tourist destinations and destroyed the development of the tourism industry itself. This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between international tourism receipts and shadow economy for 149 countries over the period 1995-2008. We use a generalized one-step error-correction model (ECM) in combination with a system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to explore the long-run relationship between these two variables. Our results suggest that tourism receipts and shadow economy are cointegrated. This implies that shadow economy and the tourism industry worldwide are related in the long-run. The long-run elasticities indicate a negative impact of the shadow economy on the tourism sector suggesting that increase in shadow economy activities will adversely affecting the tourism industry.

In this paper, we examine the interrelations between bank lending, macroeconomic conditions and financial uncertainty for an emerging economy, Malaysia. Adopting time series techniques of cointegration, causality and vector autoregressions (VARs), we arrive at the following main results. We note long run positive relations between real output and both real bank credits and real stock prices. However, with slow adjustment of real output in responses to credit expansion or stock price increase and weak exogeneity of the latter two variables, both credits and stock prices can be persistently higher than their fundamental values. The phenomenon can be detrimental since it heightens market uncertainty. Our results suggest that heightened market uncertainty is negatively related to output in the long run and, on the basis of dynamics analysis, it is likely to depress real output, real credit and real stock prices. At the same time, we note significant dynamic impacts of interest rate shocks on other variables. Taken together, these results have important implications for macroeconomic performance and stability for the case of Malaysi

This paper reports evidence of a banking liquidity impact on stock prices in the three Asean countries. Banking liquidity impacts suggested by Friedman is yet to be fully investigated nor verified despite several attempts. If improved liquidity of banks leads to credit expansion, which in turn leads to more positive net present value projects undertaken by firms, earnings of the latter must go up, and hence the share prices should rise. This link is worth an investigation. According to an influential of the US stock market, up to 52% of share returns are due to changes in the macro economy. Using a 3-equation structural model as well as employing corrections for cross-section dependence, we examine the link between money supply, liquidity and stock prices over 2001:4Q and 2012:2Q in three developing countries. It is found money supply changes lead to a positive liquidity effect and banking liquidity impacts share market prices positively. These findings are new and in support of Friedman's liquidity proposition, and also constitute evidence of a banking liquidity having a positive effect on asset prices.

This paper examines the existence of behavioural finance aspects among Malaysian fund managers. We identify behavioural biases of loss aversion, disposition effect and illusion of control. We also study the endowment effect and mental accounting which rooted in the Prospect Theory. We developed two-parts experiments i.e. investment-related decisions and general behavioural questions. The study revealed that Malaysian fund managers are prone to behavioural biases in investment decisions and general aspects as well. We also analysed the data in comparison with demographical information such as age, gender, years of experience and investing style. We find that the younger fund managers tend to experience behavioural biases more than the elders. Female fund managers prone to loss aversion and disposition effect than male fund managers, while male fund managers experience a moderately higher percentage in illusion of control than the female counterpart.

This research attempts to explore the impact of banking competition on financial stability employing more precise measure of market power. It was found that Islamic banks are less stable and are enjoying lower market power. The analysis shows that higher market competition makes the banking sector vulnerable to defaults, supporting the "competition-fragility view". This research finds no difference in the relationship for Islamic banks indicates that Islamic banks might be involved in traditional banking activities as conventional banks. The results are consistent and robust to different estimation approaches and subsamples. This research carries regulatory and policy implications.

Infrastructure is the backbone of modem economies; an adequate and efficient public infrastructure is essential for nations to achieve their economic growth objectives. Although the need and role of infrastructure are well recognized, little attention has been paid to the risks and pitfalls of the current infrastructure financing structures. The enormous infrastructure deficit and the increasing instances of debt restructurings, infrastructure project failures and expensive government bailouts, present enough reason for a deeper thought and action towards making infrastructure financing more robust. Through the thesis, the researcher sheds light on the problems related to such forms of financings and presents the case for an alternative model to finance infrastructure developments. The objective is to structure instruments based on Islamic risk-sharing principles and evaluate their efficacy to finance infrastructure projects. To test the viability of such instruments, we use the case study approach, whereby the cases of the Euro Tunnel and the Taiwan High Speed Rail have been simulated and backtested, to demonstrate how fortunes of these projects would have been different considering the use of the proposed instruments instead of conventional interest-bearing debt. The findings of the cash flow remodel are positive for both the cases and the introduction of the proposed instrument within the two project capital structures adds robustness to the projects. Moreover, the risk adjusted returns for investors tends to be higher in comparison to the conventional infrastructure financing structures. The findings provide a strong argument towards the use of lesser leverage for infrastructure financing and the use of risk-sharing instruments by governments to develop infrastructure. The proposed instrument while providing stability to infrastructure projects and economic benefits to its investors, is Shariah compliant or in line with the tenets of Islamic law and thus can be used by Shariah conscious investors to generate superior returns and by policy makers to further build the Islamic capital markets.

The Global Risk Report (2021) identifies ESG risks as the number one risk faced by the global economy. Banks have contributed to this risk and can also contribute to mitigating it. High exposure of Banks to ESG risks will contribute to climate disaster, which in turn will have financial risk implications for banks in the form of disaster events risks and energy transition risks. Depositors can discipline banks in reducing and preferably eliminating their ESG risks through enforcing market discipline by deposit withdrawal. This thesis investigates the extent to which deposit withdrawal works as market discipline against ESG risks in the banks of the OIC region. The thesis also examines the impact of financial risk represented by CAMELS variables on depositors' behavior. The generalized method of moments (System GMM estimator) is used for dynamic panel data models, as well as a sample from 65 countries over the period 2007 to 2016. Our findings indicate that depositors react significantly to environmental and governance risks while depositors' discipline does not exist with social risks. With regard to financial risks, our findings suggest weak evidence of market discipline. However, regressing CAMELS components separately provides better results and understanding than regressing CAMELS components collectively. In the OIC region, the study indicates that depositors tend to be sensitive to changes in capital adequacy, bank earnings and ESG risks, while in the non-OIC region, depositors are only sensitive to management quality.

Malaysian firms have been reported to be involved in Asset-Backed Securities since 1986 when Cagamas Bhd was the pioneer in the field. This research aims to examine the factors influencing spread in Malaysia's securitization market. In order to provide a test of stability and a choice of model, the multicollinearity test was conducted by providing information on the degree of correlation between the explanatory variables used in the multivariate regression analysis. Ordinary Least Square method was used for baseline, and panel data analysis was applied during the study period (2004-2012) for a more robust check of the analysis. The data were obtained from 90 non-financial firms or institutions and the number of observations carried out was 387. The results show that four determinants influence or contribute to the primary market spread and are statistically significant in developing securitisation in Malaysia. It can be concluded that loan to value, maturity, debt and crisis significantly contribute to the determinant primary market spread. From five hypotheses, two hypotheses support that the determinants have a relationship with primary market spread. The result will act as a model and benchmark for other ASEAN countries to use as Malaysia was resilient during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Policy makers can use this study to execute the timing and quantum of issuance securitisation. The other findings of this study have considerable policy relevance. It could be stated that the higher the risk reflects the higher the spread of the firm, especially when there is lower credit rating during crisis periods and higher debt. Therefore, the role of a firm is to reduce the risk in order to reduce the spread, and simultaneously reduce the cost of financing by finding alternative sources of funding. The continued success of the Malaysian securitisation firms depends on their efficiency in using their resources and the competitiveness of the firms.

Technology startups (TSs) are critical to develop economic capacity, support innovation and stimulate entrepreneurial spirit In a nation. As TSs embark on innovative and disruptive journeys, they face their biggest challenge: financing. This study aims to examine the determinants of financing among TSs in Malaysia while critically examining the role of Islamic Finance. The study adopts a triangulation methodological approach, which consists of questionnaire survey and semi-structured interviews. It focuses on Malaysian technology startups, entrepreneurs and their financing needs mainly at two stages: the early stage and the later stage. The study examines the following dependent variables as financing determinants: Entrepreneurs' Profiles (EP), Ethnic Culture (EC), innovation (IN) and Government Interventions (GI). It also examines the role of Islamic Finance among TSs. Binary regression analysis was used to analyse the data collected from the questionnaire survey, respectively grounded theory was employed to analyse interview survey data ...

This paper contradicts the existence of a universal value anomaly by studying Malaysia, a country with a unique institutional setting. We investigate this counter-example to attribute the anomaly to: 1) the leverage effect of value firms; 2) the investment pattern of growth firms; 3) the economic environment. We find that the value premium cannot be ascribed solely to risk as it is time varying and dependent on the attributes of the companies. Our results illustrate that small cap value firms perform relatively well during favourable economic conditions. In contrast, large cap growth firms perform better than their counterparts (i.e., large cap value firms) in economic upturns as they are preferentially awarded projects to revive the nation's growth.

This study aims to dispel the myth of the value anomaly by employing the logic of the well-known Austrian British philosopher Sir Karl Raimund Popper, who espoused that positive outcomes of empirical observation cannot confirm an anomaly, such as value premium (Popper, 1953).

This study examines the impact of foreign aid on the institutional quality (IQ) of the OIC countries. Using the data of OIC countries for the three-year average period from 1991 to 2016, the system GMM finds that aid in general deteriorates the IQ for the aid recipient countries. However, quantile regression suggests that the negative impact of foreign aid on institutional quality (IQ) is relatively greater in the countries where the existing quality of institution is poor. The findings of the study suggest that improving the existing capacity is essential for reaping the optimum benefit of foreign aid on institutional development.

In presence of the market frictions, firms aim to attain target capital structure by making strategic choices towards re-engineering the leverage. These choices influence not only firm’s investment patterns, capital costs and expected returns but also lead to conflict of interest among the stakeholders. The dynamic market forces make targeting a continuous exercise for the firm, as it strives to make optimal financing decisions to raise its value and reduce the risk of bankruptcy. An occurrence of acute financial crisis disturbs the capital structure and firms may foresee this and try to adjust. If adjustment is seen prior to a crisis in favour of higher leverage and moving away from the optimum capital structure, then it may signify cheaper adjusting costs and greater access to the debt financing. If adjustment takes place post crisis, then it means that valuable lessons are learnt and steps are taken to attain the optimum capital structure.

This paper investigates the effect of political patronage on firms' capital structure. The evidence is from Malaysia, a country characterised by relationship-capitalism, and covers 1988 to 2009. Using a system GMM estimator we find firms set leverage targets and adjust towards them following deviations at the rate of 28% per annum. Next, we construct a natural experiment and use a difference-in-differences model to investigate if the strategic financing decisions of politically patronised firms differ from non-connected firms after an exogenous shock caused by the 1997 Asian crisis. Our results unambiguously demonstrate a significant difference in the capital structure of patronised firms relative to non-connected firms following the exogenous shock but only for the crisis period 1998–2001. After 2002 the capital structures of patronised and non-connected firms are statistically equivalent.

The present paper analyzes the role of stock market, more specifically real stock prices and stock market uncertainty/volatility, on private consumption behavior for an emerging market, Malaysia, using quarterly data from 1991 to 2009. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration test, the paper establishes a long-run equilibrium that ties private consumption to its determinants - real income, real stock prices, real lending rate, and stock market volatility. In the long run, the presence of the stock market wealth effect is documented. At the same time, the stock market volatility is also noted to depress private consumption particularly when the volatility is at the degree as observed during the Asian crisis. The authors further note the short-run influences of real stock price changes on consumption growth and the adjustment of private consumption to the long-run level when it is modeled in an error-correction setting. Our simple simulation indicates that the drop in the private consumption due to the decline in stock market wealth post-crisis is substantial, amounting to 2.7% of average post-crisis gross domestic product.

Although literature on shadow economy has been growing, the examination is scarce in the case of developing countries, especially the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) economies. In this study, we develop various testable hypotheses related to shadow economy. We investigate the determinants of shadow economy across a large sample of 141 countries and examine whether it varies across OIC (42) and non-OIC (99) countries. The average size of the shadow economy in OIC countries is 34.36% of gross domestic product (GDP) while it is 30.57% of GDP in non-OlC economies. The approach of exploring various definitions, historical development, types, Islamic viewpoint and the determining factors behind people's preference to join shadow economy is adopted in order to provide a deeper understanding of shadow economy. As far as our first objective Is concerned, we explored the determinants of shadow economy in OIC and non-OIC countries (1995-2015). Our results show that economic growth and institutional variables have negative association with shadow economy in both types of countries whereas government expenditure has a positive effect on shadow economy in both groups ...

This study empirically investigates the stochastic corporate coupon bond pricing model proposed by Baaquie (2020b) and the pioneering structural risky bond pricing model proposed by Merton (1974). Merton's risky zero-coupon bond pricing model is converted into a portfolio of zeros to study corporate coupon bonds. The seminal work of Merton (1974) is considered as the backbone of corporate bond pricing. Merton's model is based on the generalization of Black and Scholes (1973) option pricing theory. The coupon bond pricing model, proposed by Baaquie (2020b), is based on Merton's bond pricing theory, but coupons are stochastic. Hence, we can call it a stochastic coupon bond pricing model where coupon varies from payment to payment based on the issuer's performance. The proposed model of stochastic coupons has a built-in hedge for the issuer and has the feature of profit and loss sharing between investor and issuer, making it a viable instrument for Islamic finance. The model can be calibrated and tested using market data. This thesis is structured into six chapters, including an introductory chapter, a review chapter, three core chapters, and a concluding chapter. The introductory chapter highlights the motivation, problem statement, and objectives of this study. In review chapter, theoretical and empirical works along with derivation of Merton (1974) and Baaquie (2020b) are reviewed. In conclusion, a summary of the thesis, policy recommendation, limitation, and future directions are discussed. In the third chapter of the thesis, we investigate the following three questions. First, how can one use the proposed model for an empirical study of fixed coupon bonds, since apparently, the model implies stochastic coupons being paid continuously? Second, how the newly introduced parameters, three exogenous parameters - market time and firm's effective valuation and two endogenous parameters - stochastic coupon and firm value volatility, behave for different categories of the bonds and contribute to the improvement of the model's fit? Third, does the stochastic coupon model estimate the bonds' market price more accurately compared to Merton's model? To answer these questions, we have shown how to calibrate and test the stochastic corporate coupon bond pricing model along with newly introduced parameters using a sample of fixed coupon bonds issued by the US corporations. Estimated coupon bond prices from the stochastic model are then compared with the estimated prices from the extended version, portfolio of zeros, of the Merton model.

The slides highlight 1) finance growth theory used in the study; 2) social cohesion and growth nexus.

In spite of the expanding number of studies investigating the effect of institutional quality on capital flows, a very few attempts has been made to investigate the impact of capital flows on the institutional quality of host countries.This study investigates the role of capital flows on the institutional infrastructure of the OIC countries, which are divided into three separate essays. The first essay investigates the impact of the official development assistance (ODA) on the institutional development of the OIC counties. The research uses system GMM, and the data for this study is obtained from 40 OIC countries for the three-year average period from 1991 to 2016. Empirical findings suggest that aid reduces the Institutional quality for the aid recipient countries. For robustness test and heterogeneous relationship among aid recipient countries, this study uses panel quantile regression and finds that foreign aid generally reduces Institutional quality, and its reduction effect is greater in less institutionally developed countries ...