Energy projects are mostly large, irreversible and highly risky investments. The real options valuation approach is widely used to value such investment projects. Indeed, papers covered in the survey article by Fernandes et al. (2011) underscore the relevance of the real options approach to value energy sector investments. However, the related literature overlooks the distributional nature of project cash flows. The work on energy real options overwhelmingly considers log-normally-distributed cash flows, despite the well-documented evidence that cash flows are normally distributed (Burg, 2018; Kanniainen, 2009; Veronesi, 1999). The log-normality cash flows assumption solves the tractability of the problem at expense of ruling out negative cash flows. In other words, the popularity of this assumption stems from its tractability rather than its realism. Given the large and irreversible nature of energy projects, distributional assumptions characterising cash flows are crucially important in these investments. Furthermore, the interaction of normally distributed cash flows with macroeconomic risk associated with business cycles can be different than that of log-normal cash flows. This paper therefore uses a real options approach to value energy projects whose cash flows follow a normal distribution and subject to macroeconomic risk.

When faced with capital flow and credit growth waves in recent years, policymakers have relied upon macroprudential regulation. This paper sheds light on a relatively less-analyzed policy issue: how macroprudential regulatory measures mitigate extreme credit growth episodes. We use a dynamic panel data approach to estimate the impact of MaPPs on credit growth volatility and the likelihood of credit growth boom and bust episodes. We find that MaPPs reduce credit growth volatility in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). In addition, MaPPs help to prevent credit surges in EMEs and stops in AEs. Our results show that there is a strong link between net capital flows and credit growth stop episodes. Net capital flow surges trigger a credit surge for EMEs. This suggests that policymakers should consider both MaPPs and capital flow management measures when designing policies to mitigate the risks associated with these phenomena.