The paper discusses the currents that led to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We discuss the crisis in a historical context and present evidence regarding the incidence and unit price of risk. Our results show that the unit price of risk prior to the subprime crisis is comparable to the price of risk prior to the great depression and similar to the price of risk at onset of the technology bubble. We then discuss global imbalances, the associated risks with regard to international optimal allocation of capital, and arrangements to minimize problems of global imbalances.

Technological revolution, avalanche-growing financial technology (FinTech) companies, customers waiting for unlimited service, and regulations based on data sharing point to a new era in banking. The new era, open banking, provides an expansion of the scope of banking services offered in a wide geography from European Union countries to China, from the United States to South American countries. In the new period, it is aimed to provide more innovative, inclusive and practical services by sharing the authorized data of customers with FinTech companies. It is seen that the countries show significant differences and similarities in their open banking practices. In this descriptive study, the steps taken in the United Kingdom, where the concept was first implemented, and in Turkey, where the relevant legislation is still under preparation, together with the studies carried out by the regulatory institutions in the world's two largest economies, the United States of America and the People's Republic of China, are chronologically. Throughout the study, open banking is evaluated mainly through the payment initiation service and account information service and their providers.

We estimate default measures for US banks using a model capable of handling volatility clustering like those observed during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In order to account for the time variation in volatility, we adapted a GARCH option pricing model which extends the seminal structural approach of default by Merton (J Finance 29(2):449, 1974) and calculated "distance to default" indicators that respond to heightened market developments.With its richer volatility dynamics, our results better reflect higher expected default probabilities precipitated by the GFC. The diagnostics show that the model generally outperforms standard models of default and offers relatively good indicators in assessing bank failures.

Energy projects are mostly large, irreversible and highly risky investments. The real options valuation approach is widely used to value such investment projects. Indeed, papers covered in the survey article by Fernandes et al. (2011) underscore the relevance of the real options approach to value energy sector investments. However, the related literature overlooks the distributional nature of project cash flows. The work on energy real options overwhelmingly considers log-normally-distributed cash flows, despite the well-documented evidence that cash flows are normally distributed (Burg, 2018; Kanniainen, 2009; Veronesi, 1999). The log-normality cash flows assumption solves the tractability of the problem at expense of ruling out negative cash flows. In other words, the popularity of this assumption stems from its tractability rather than its realism. Given the large and irreversible nature of energy projects, distributional assumptions characterising cash flows are crucially important in these investments. Furthermore, the interaction of normally distributed cash flows with macroeconomic risk associated with business cycles can be different than that of log-normal cash flows. This paper therefore uses a real options approach to value energy projects whose cash flows follow a normal distribution and subject to macroeconomic risk.

The existence of government guarantees to bail out investors and the use of official support to prevent corporate bankruptcies are commonly viewed to have largely contributed to the financial fragilities of many emerging market economies during the 1990s. This paper attempts to rationalize the existence and the duration of such policies. By using a simple model of the economy, we formalize governments' decision on how long to provide resources to bridge the gap between the corporate sector's earnings and obligations. By considering both the costs and benefits of bail-outs in an environment where there are unfavorable productivity shocks, we show that the bail-out policy ends sooner; the higher the initial level of foreign borrowing, the lower the productivity, the lower the rate of time preference, and the higher the world interest rate. We also show that given any set of fundamentals, an unfavorable shift in market sentiments may end such policies sooner than otherwise.

International commodity and capital flows provide channels for the transmission of the effects of demographic changes in large countries onto small open economies by altering the prices and interest rates facing them. This implies that even small countries with relatively young populations are potentially vulnerable to the effects of population aging in large industrial economies. To address this issue, which has largely been overlooked in previous literature, this paper considers the case of European Union and Turkey and shows, within an overlapping generations general equilibrium framework, that spillovers of the demographic shock in Europe would intensify the changes that Turkey would experience during its own demographic transition.

This paper revisits the controversy over whether retail gasoline prices respond to increases in upstream prices more rapidly than decreases. Using threshold and momentum models of cointegration and daily data at different stages in the distribution chain, we find that transmission between upstream and downstream prices is mostly asymmetric in the momentum model: increases in upstream prices are passed on to downstream prices more quickly than decreases. We distinguish between small and large shocks and show that the asymmetry is more pronounced for small shocks, which may be due to consumer search costs.

When faced with capital flow and credit growth waves in recent years, policymakers have relied upon macroprudential regulation. This paper sheds light on a relatively less-analyzed policy issue: how macroprudential regulatory measures mitigate extreme credit growth episodes. We use a dynamic panel data approach to estimate the impact of MaPPs on credit growth volatility and the likelihood of credit growth boom and bust episodes. We find that MaPPs reduce credit growth volatility in both advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). In addition, MaPPs help to prevent credit surges in EMEs and stops in AEs. Our results show that there is a strong link between net capital flows and credit growth stop episodes. Net capital flow surges trigger a credit surge for EMEs. This suggests that policymakers should consider both MaPPs and capital flow management measures when designing policies to mitigate the risks associated with these phenomena.

We examine several discrete-time versions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (CIR) model for the term structure, in which the short rate is subject to discrete shifts. Our empirical analysis suggests that careful consideration of which parameters of the short-term interest rate equation that are allowed to be switched is crucial. Ignoring this issue may result in a parameterization that produces no improvement (in terms of bond pricing) relative to the standard CIR model, even when there are clear breaks in the data.

We develop a systemic risk indicator approach using a structural GARCH option-based default risk framework incorporating volatility clustering, variance risk premiums, along with distance-to-capital features. We apply our model to the U.S. banking sector, testing its explanatory and forecasting power. Our model successfully identifies the most systemically risky banks during heightened systemic-risk episodes. Comparing our results to related approaches, especially the respected indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, we evidence markedly improved performance. Given the recent implosion of Silicon Valley Bank, exploring new approaches to constructing banking systemic risk indicators should be of great interest to regulators and policy makers.

This paper investigates the effects of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) implementation on banking performance in emerging and developing countries. Applying the Two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) to panel data of 179 banks across 29 countries spanning 2016-2022, we find that ESG implementation significantly enhances overall banking profitability. However, when we assess the implications of ESG on Islamic banks, we find that overall ESG commitment significantly reduces profitability. As for the individual ESG pillar, we note the profit-enhancing effect of environmental pillar on both Islamic and conventional bank profitability. Some evidence is also uncovered for the significant positive effect of social pillar on conventional bank profitability. Finally, we note no significant influences from governance pillar. These results highlight the divergent impacts of ESG implementation on Islamic and conventional banks. We conclude that policymakers should exercise caution in designing and implementing ESG policies, ensuring they are tailored to promote optimal performance across different banking models. This study contributes to the growing body of the literature on sustainable finance and provides valuable insights for regulators and bank managers in emerging and developing economies.

Default risk increases substantially during financial stress times due to mainly the two reasons: volatility clustering and investors' desire to protect themselves from such increases in volatility. It manifested in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009 with unpleasant outcomes of many bankruptcies and severe financial distress. To account for these features, we adapted the structural credit risk approach to include both time-varying (return) volatility and risk premium about the return volatility itself. By applying the model to US banks, we obtain better bank default indicators in comparison to the benchmark models.

This paper investigates episodes of financial stress and its relationship to economic activity in some Southeast Asian economies. To that end, we use a dynamic factor model to construct a financial stress index for Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand and examine the relationship between financial stress and economic activity. Our financial stress index consists of riskiness in the banking sector, security market risk, currency risk, external debt and sovereign risk. Empirical results indicate that our financial stress index tracks recessions closely in the sample and impulse response functions suggest financial stress causes significant economic slowdowns.

We compare actual and calibrated values for the foreign exchange risk premium based on the definition in [J. Int. Econ. 32 (1992) 305]. Calibrated values are found from within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy consisting of risk averse optimizing agents with unconventional preferences. We find that the equilibrium foreign exchange risk premium is a function of exogenous shocks in the model and is sensitive to assumed attitudes towards risk. Furthermore, various forms of policy uncertainty improve the capacity of the model to generate values closer to those found in the data.

This study investigates the economic growth implications of ongoing and prospective rises in corporate tax rates following G20 countries' minimum corporation tax agreement. We use a panel data estimation approach to examine economic growth rates and associated macro-economic variables of 42 nations from 1990 to 2017. To elicit more comprehensive insights, we make a distinction between advanced countries (ACs) and emerging market economies (EMEs) and different levels of growth using a quantile estimation approach. The results reveal that corporate tax rate rises depress growth, with a relatively sizeable impact for EMEs, whereas it is not statistically significant for ACs. At high quantiles of growth rates, the impact of the corporate tax policy on growth increases. These findings suggest a dual effect for EMEs with relatively high growth rates and symmetric growth effects of corporate tax changes, necessitating innovative policy prescriptions to address the negative growth impact of prospective higher corporate tax rates.

In this paper we use a continuous-time, stochastic, dynamic general equilibrium model to provide estimates of the growth and welfare effects of monetary volatility. Our primary concern is to highlight the long-run consequences of different monetary environments in a small open economy. Using UK-relevant data to set key parameter values in the model, we carry out three policy experiments. We find that (i) eliminating monetary growth shocks and (ii) reducing the infation rate can each generate positive growth and welfare effects, while (iii) reducing the interest rate depresses growth and is welfare deteriorating. However, these results are sensitive to the values set for the risk aversion and intertemporal substitution parameters. Most notably, in some cases, high degrees of risk aversion are suffcient to change the direction of the infuence of volatility on growth and welfare an issue currently challenging the profession.

The paper highlights the encountered problems in implementing real options under more realistic assumptions such as business cycle risk and normally distributed cash flows. The problems considered include (i) estimating empirical distribution of cash flows from real option investments; (ii) investment decisions across business cycles, and (iii) calculating the probability of investing with the above stated rich features. To this end, we estimate operating cash flows of US corporate firms using a Markov chain model under both geometric and arithmetic Brownian motions assumptions for cash flows and develop a valuation model of real option with normally distributed cash flows. Associated investment valuation models incorporating these estimates reveal that critical cash flow levels significantly differ across models and regimes.

Recent research has highlighted the role that the government budget constraint plays in determining the consumer price level. According to the fiscal approach to price determination, prices adjust so that the discounted value of future real government primary surpluses equals the current real value of public debt. An important implication is that the probability of a crisis involving default on public debt may directly affect consumer prices. This paper examines the interaction of prices and sovereign insolvency crises using simple, continuous-time models of the government budget constraint.

The effectiveness of proposed reforms to the tax system intended to stimulate investment depends on how capital structure affects corporate behaviour. A dynamic general equilibrium model, calibrated for the UK, is used to investigate the difference between three models of financial structure, including one of endogenous structure motivated by agency theory. It is shown that the difference in predicted effects can be significant, and that the impact of the reform on the marginal source of funds is crucial.

How do regulatory changes in a foreign country affect the lending growth in another country? This paper addresses this question using bank-level data from Turkey and macroprudential measures from fifty-six countries over a sample period of 2006-13. We offer evidence for the existence of the inward transmission of foreign prudential regulations by showing that the macroprudential tightening abroad leads to lending growth by the banks in Turkey. We find that domestic affiliates of foreign banks play a more prominent role in this transmission. We show that the existence and the magnitude spillovers differ across bank characteristics or the prudential instruments. Finally, our results indicate that the spillovers depend on the financial cycles.

We explore the role of taxes on stimulating investment decisions for levered firms under cashflows and investment costs uncertainty using the adjusted present value-based real options approach developed by Myers and Read (2019). We extend their work to consider combined tax credits and uncertain investment costs. We then run a numerical analysis to quantify the impact of uncertainty, corporate tax and investment tax credit in stimulating investments.